Thursday, October 8, 2009

Right Time, Right Place?

Bobby Bowden is widely considered to be one of the greatest college football coaches of all time. That is indisputably true, being he is the second winningest coach of all time. I am going to make the argument that Bobby Bowden deserves to go out on his terms not for building the FSU program, rather for his loyalty to the school. After examining some numbers, there seems to be some proof that Bobby Bowden isn't the only man who could have built the Florida State football powerhouse.

In 1977, FSU had its first winning season under Bobby Bowden.
Since that he was won 309 games and won 2 national titles. That is 9.65 wins per season.

In 1979, Miami hired Howard Schnellenberger and had their first winning season in 6 years. Since him they have had 5 other head coaches. In those 30 years Miami has won 287 games and won 5 national titles. That is 9.56 wins per season.

In 1980, Florida hired Charley Pell and had their then best ever season at 8-3. Since him they have had 4 other head coaches. In those 29 years Florida has won 268 games and won 3 national titles. That is 9.24 wins per season.

Is it coincidence that all these programs rose at the same time? Two would be a coincidence, three looks like a trend.

Florida State owes Bobby Bowden for his dedication to the school. While all of these Miami and Florida coaches left their schools to pursue greater opportunity, Bobby Bowden remained at Florida State. And that is why he should be allowed his farewell tour next season. But, here are a couple signs that he 1) hasn't made solid coaching decisions as of late and 2) the game has sadly passed him by...

Since Bobby hired Jeff Bowden in 2001 FSU has won 68 games at a clip of 8.37 games per season. Not bad for a college football program. But when you compare it to Miami, Florida, and even South Florida that's where the evidence lies that FSU is noticeably underachieving...

Since 2001, Florida has won 77 games at a clip of 9.63 games per season. They have won 2 national titles during that span. Miami has won 74 games at a clip of 9.25 games per season. They won 1 national title during that span. South Florida has won 65 games at a clip of 8.13 games per season (pretty close to FSU's 68). More concerning is in the last 4 years USF has won 31 games and FSU has won 25 games...including losing to them at home.

As an alumni of FSU I love Bobby Bowden. I recognize what the school owes him for his dedication to the university. However, Bobby Bowden is not an alumni of the school, he is an employee. And taking off my garnet and gold goggles, as a college football enthusiast, I have realized that he isn't "rare" in terms of coaching ability. The other two big Florida schools have made several head coaching moves during Bowden's tenure and have remained successful and won national titles. That is why the future is bright for Florida State football, but the future can not begin until the necessary changes are made.

This is the Bobby Bowden that is one of the greatest college football coaches of all time... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJxWtxsxwlQ

This is the Bobby Bowden that the game of college football has passed by... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIn17ufE7ZM&feature=related

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Week 3 College Football Reflection

There were a lot of surprises this week in college football. Through these surprises a few things become a little clearer to me. The first thing is that Florida and Texas are not invincible. Both teams played at home against above average conference foes. In the earlier match-up Florida was supposed to completely dismantle Tennessee. I sure thought that was going to happen. The 30-point favorites managed to win by ten. The first thing that can be ruled out is if Florida was not "up" for this game. After all of Lane Kiffin's preseason comments about beating Florida, and wrongful allegations about a Urban Meyer recruiting violation, you would think Florida had the intention to run up the score on Tennessee. In Urban Meyer's post-game press conference he commented that he did not need to try to score more because Lane Kiffin wasn’t trying to win the game. He was referring to the fact that Tennessee wasn’t trying to throw the ball downfield in an attempt to strike quickly to erase the deficit quicker. Meyer then proceeded to discuss a recent flu epidemic that plagued his team. Lane Kiffin rebutted these comments in a sarcastic manner suggesting that Urban Meyer was making excuses for not routing Tennessee at home. I agree with Lane Kiffin. In defense of Tennessee running the ball...they had to run the ball! When Jonathon Crompton is given the chance to throw the ball down field he seems to turn it over more times then actually make an incompletion. Then on top of that they were perhaps up against the best defense in the nation. Throwing the ball would have been suicide. If Tennessee didn't run the ball, they would have lost by the 30 point spread. Instead they were actually able to score by running and cut the deficit to ten points with eight minutes left. So this is a strange comment by one of the best offensive minds in college football. He, if anyone, should know Tennessee could not afford to throw the ball downfield. The strategy was a beautiful move by Lane Kiffin. The only reason that Tennessee lost the game is Florida is just that much better than Tennessee. Ten points is the closest Tennessee could have gotten in that game. Then with the flu comments Urban Meyer sealed his fate. He was making excuses for not routing Tennessee. Maybe Urban Meyer should take a lesson from his star quarterback in not making excuses. Instead, admit Tennessee's defense played great and correct the mistakes you made in that game, because there were plenty of them. Urban Meyer should be glad they were able to get away with those mistakes and still win the game. It is easy to get fooled by one of the best defensive coordinators the NFL has ever had, Monte Kiffin. But, if Florida had come out with that sort of effort against a team like Alabama, the national title run would have been over before it started.

Perhaps USC showed their true colors on Saturday. They appear to have an average offense and a great defense. The defense is good enough to hold them in the top 15 for the rest of the year, but the offense is going to be a work in progress. Now maybe it’s not a coincidence that with the losses of Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkasian, the offense had to take a dip. I don't think this is going to be a trend with USC though. They still have far too much skill position talent and a very special freshman QB in Matt Barkley. Those who are calling for the end of the USC dynasty are crazy. This is merely a speed bump season for USC. As far as this season goes though, I would not be surprised to see them lose to Cal and/or Notre Dame. It could be a rare year in which we see USC out of the BCS picture. That's a very weird thought.

Through the first three weeks of the season we are starting to see a revival of prestigious programs previously in a freefall. Miami has probably been the most impressive team at this point in the season. The Labor Day game with Florida State has now been proven to be the good game we thought it was. Given the eye test, the FSU-Miami game looked like a very well played game between two very good teams. It remained to be seen if it was just a game between two sub par defenses. Miami got their revenge on Georgia Tech from last year and completely shut their option attack down in the process. Jacory Harris and the offense looked just as good as week 1 in the process. After FSU's near loss to Jacksonville State it appeared that they may not have been as good as advertised against Miami. After Saturday night's beat down on BYU in Provo it turns out they are every bit as good and maybe even better. There are not many teams in the nation that can beat Florida State if they play like that the rest of the year. Christian Ponder looks like the real deal right there along with Harris. Suddenly, Tim Tebow has company in the state of Florida. With Alabama's reemergence last year, Tennessee under solid direction with Kiffin, Michigan looking up under Rich Rod, and Nebraska nearly knocking off Virginia Tech on the road, college football is looking a little more familiar again.

Here is my poll for the week using the same basis as last week...

1. Alabama
2. Miami (FL)
3. Florida
4. Texas
5. California
6. Boise State
7. LSU
8. Houston
9. Cincinnati
10. Ole Miss
11. Penn State
12. TCU
13. Florida State
14. Virginia Tech
15. Oklahoma
16. Washington
17. USC
18. Ohio State
19. Oklahoma State
20. BYU
21. Michigan
22. North Carolina
23. Kansas
24. Georgia
25. Nebraska

Monday, September 14, 2009

Week 2 College Football Reflection

Last week I would have said there were five teams in college football that clearly stand above the rest. Well, this week that number has dwindled to four. Florida, Texas, USC, and Alabama seem to be the class after the second week. But, if the first two weeks are an indication of the trend of this season, then we shouldn't even bother speculating who are going to be the final two teams. Sure, right now the obvious contenders are Florida and Texas. However, while everyone else in the top ten has been challenging themselves with worthy opponents, these two teams have played absolute cupcakes. Lets take a look at these schedules:

(1) Florida:
Week 1- Charleston Southern W 62-3
Week 2- Troy W 56-6

(2) Texas:
Week 1- Louisiana Monroe W 59-20
Week 2- Wyoming W 41-10

Yes, both of these teams performed how they should have and completely dismantled these inferior opponents. But, my question is, how is this fair? During this two week span Oklahoma played BYU at a neutral site, Oklahoma State played Georgia and a game Houston squad, Alabama and Virginia Tech played a nuetral site game, USC and Ohio State collided, LSU and Cal both played BCS conference teams, and Boise State hosted then ranked Oregon. The argument that Texas and Florida would make is that their conferences are already so tough that they don't need those challenging out of conference games. Well, my response would be, "well, everyone else seems to do it." The other two teams I am going to call out for a soft out of conference schedule are Ole Miss and Penn State. Ole Miss gets a pass in my book because when these schedules were made their goal was simply to make a bowl. Ole Miss was not expecting to be a preseason top ten team. Texas and Florida definitely had a good idea they would be highly touted coming into the year. I digress to Penn State, who should be embarrassed of their out of conference schedule. The toughest out of conference team on their schedule is Syracuse, who went 3-9 last year, and Cuse now has a guy who hasn't played football in four years starting at quarterback. Let's pray that Ohio State can take care of them, or else Penn State will most likely be in the national championship. And this leads me to my next point.

The rankings are not updated correctly. If we are not rewarding teams for playing these brutal out of conference games, then they are going to stop playing them. As a fan I don't want to see that happen. Those who manage these polls should hold some sort of a workshop for the voters before the season takes place and tell voters to arrange their polls according to who looks the best, so far, on a weekly basis. This would include not making a preseason poll, those should be left to the preseason maganizes to entertain the fans. This would take into account who you have beaten, not how you have beaten cupcake teams that won't make a bowl. Florida did look good against Charleston Southern, beating them by 59. But, FCS Wofford played them the next week and won by 38. That win for Florida should be completely ignored. If I had a vote in the polls this is what it would look like.

1. USC- Beat Ohio State in a classic game AT Ohio State
2. Alabama- Ran all over a very good Virginia Tech defense
3. BYU- Beat defending runner-up Oklahoma at a nuetral site
4. Florida- Defending national champion
5. Texas- Easily could have played in national championship last year
6. Boise State- Defeated Oregon at home; defense looks improved
7. Ohio State- Very easily could have beat USC and be in top three
8. California- Whomped BCS opponent Maryland
9. LSU- Beat a much improved looking Washington team
10. Oklahoma- With Bradford, the BYU game could have gone differently
11. Georgia Tech- Got a big conference win against Clemson at home
12. Penn State- We are goin to have to wait a while to see how good they are
13. Ole Miss- Kind of squeaked by Memphis; that final score is deceiving
14. Virginia Tech- Lost to Alabama, but can't drop them too far for taking on that challenge
15. Houston- Beat Oklahoma State on the road
16. TCU- Beat a BCS conference team in Virginia, but UVA did lose to a FCS team
17. Oklahoma State- Beat Georgia, then lost to Houston
18. Cincinnati- Impressive opening week win over Rutgers
19. Miami (FL)- Offense looked much improved against rival FSU
20. Michigan- Great program win against very hyped Notre Dame
21. Nebraska- Looks improved, but we'll find out for sure this weekend against Virginia Tech
22. North Carolina- Good win one the road at Connecticut
23. Georgia- Avoided 0-2 start by pulling out a good win against South Carolina
24. Missouri- Didn't look great this weekend, could have been a letdown after beating rival IL
25. Baylor- Good start to the season winning at Wake Forest

We'll see how it all plays out this year, but after week two this is what the polls should look like.